JPM-Rumo Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker(Sep. 01)： 2025 26 Corn Harvest Expected at 52 Million Tons...-20250901

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) has published its weekly update onthe soybean and corn harvest.

•Corn. Corn production for the 2024/25 season in Mato Grosso remainsunchanged at 55 million tons (+15% y/y). IMEA released the first estimates forthe 2025/26 season, with the corn production at 52 million tons (-6% y/y),driven by a 6.7% y/y reduction on productivity while the area is expected toincrease by 2%. The total area growth is driven by the North, Northeast andNorthwest of the State, in which there is still room to shift producing areas tocorn harvesting. The commercialization rate for the 2024/25 season reached62% in July (+11.9 p.p. m/m), while for the 2025/26 harvest it is at 11.4% (+4.6p.p. m/m), still below the previous five-year average by 8.4 p.p., driven by priceincreases.

•Soybean. Soybean production for 2024/25 is at 50.9 million tons (+30% y/y)while expectations for the 2025/26 crop are at 47.2 million tons (-7% y/y). Asof July, commercialization of the 2024/25 crop reached 89% (+6.8 p.p. m/m),while for the 2025/26 season, commercialization reached 22.5% (+5.0 p.p. m/m). The soybean supply for the 2025/26 harvest remains at 48.6 million tonsin Mato Grosso (-4.8% y/y) driven by the lower production estimate for thisseason. Demand is expected at 47.6 million tons (-4.1% y/y), out of which62.5% should be related to exports. The 2025/26 harvest could begin onSeptember 6 th , but the rainfall levels expected for the next two weeks areinsufficient.

•Spot Freight Truck Rates. As of August 29 th , the Sorriso-Santos truck freightrate was +0.7% w/w and +3.9% y/y, while the Sorriso-Miritituba rate was -1.9% w/w and +24.0% y/y.

•J.P. Morgan view on Rumo (RAIL3, OW). Since the company reported2Q25 earnings, the stock has underperformed IBOV by c.15 p.p. due toconcerns about the company’s pricing power going forward. We acknowledgethe short- to mid-term challenges and that the stock currently lacks immediatecatalysts. As a result, we are anticipating yield growth below inflation from2025 onwards. Nevertheless, the stock remains overly discounted, trading at a5.3x EV/EBITDA 12-month forward, which is approximately a 40% discountcompared to historical levels - click here for our latest update.