JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore 百分之0.8, Gold 百分之1.6...-20250903

1H25 results review: Earnings and DPS matter on top of macro; upgrade Angang to Neutral

MSCI China Materials has outperformed MSCI China by 19% since the beginning of Julyon the back of mostly solid 1H25 results, increasing rate cut expectations and the anti-involution theme. We believe the outperformance will continue in 2H25, and our preferenceorder is copper/gold > aluminum > steel > coal > lithium. We prefer high-quality names withstrong volume growth and positive price outlooks, such as Zijin and CMOC. We like steelon the back of the anti-involution theme, and we upgrade Angang to Neutral from UW.Baosteel is still a better steel play, in our view, due to its higher-than-peers’ profitability andguaranteed DPS. For yield seekers, Hongqiao’s 7% dividend yield is still attractive, in ourview. Below three key takeaways from 1H25 results: