Barclays-Barclays Metals Mining Mined Matters-lron ore prices continue to defy expectations-20250829

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Chart of the Week

FIGURE 1. Iron ore prices continue to defy expectations of a decline towards $90/t despite NBS datahighlighting China crude steel production declined by 3.1% YoY YTD to July. However, the NBS data isat odds with both CISA estimates of nationwide crude steel output and Mysteel average BF utilisationsurvey at +1.5% YoY YTD (to 20 August) and +3 ppts higher YTD at 88.8%, respectively. Combined withstrong steel exports (net exports +13% YoY YTD to July) these point to resilient steel/iron ore demandand ongoing support for iron ore prices (in the absence of any meaningful enforced steel output cutsin China) - this remains a positive driver for our iron ore exposed miners (RIO, BHP, AAL) vs Europeansteel companies such as MT.